Individual travelers will want to travel after the restrictions have been lifted, especially the desire to visit relatives, family and friends will be in the foreground. The summer season is expected to extend until the end of September, as many who are not working now will take their holidays later. There is a high potential for regional businesses, as the Mediterranean and flight destinations will recover very slowly.
Group tourism will have a rather difficult start. Overseas groups will be canceled in the medium term and in general group travel will lose its appeal. Domestic bus groups will be mobilized most quickly. Sports groups will not be able to train together during the current phase, so they will actively try to catch up. The large operators will need longer for the rebound.
At the moment, there is a backlog of business travel, both on a national and European basis. These trips will be made up immediately after the restrictions have been lifted, and it can be assumed that they will last longer. In the long term, the forced shock digitalization will lead to a decrease in physical meetings.
After weeks of home office, there will be a high demand for conference rooms. Especially hotels with meeting capacities will be in demand, even without actual overnight stays in the hotels. In the medium term, events with more than 100 people will not take place, which means that the congress business is threatened with complete failure. Potential is to be seen in catering for the local market, especially for small on- and offsite meetings
Global travel behavior will change in the long term. International travel in particular will continue to be restricted or become less attractive for individual travelers. Large events, congresses and trade fairs will remain prohibited for a certain period of time or will be subject to strict regulations. Congress cities will also have to reckon with long-term losses due to a lack of participants. German cities will recover more quickly thanks to a high domestic share. Cities such as Vienna, Salzburg, Venice and Prague will suffer from a decreasing number of international guests and a lack of events and thus slower recovery. The growth forecasts to date are based on overseas markets, which makes the future uncertain as forecasts have to be revised.
In summary, especially cities with a high international guest mix will have a significantly longer recovery path ahead of them. Vienna, Amsterdam, Prague, etc. will suffer longer due to canceled events and congresses.
Market recovery based on the 2008-2009 recession
The asset class hotel has proven to be resilient during the last economic crisis. Occupancy recovered within less than 12 – 24 months. However, it must be mentioned that past crises had less impact and the industry was not attacked so directly.